Boletim Panorama Econômico

A situação econômica está marcada por crise, aumento da taxa de exploração dos trabalhadores, neste caso, evidenciada por meio da elevação da produtividade do trabalho, em especial, nos setores da Indústria, mais a concentração da renda em favor dos grandes grupos econômicos.

Os setores da Indústria de meios de produção e meios de consumo duráveis, desde os últimos anos, estão conduzindo a estratégia de superar os efeitos da crise econômica por meio do aumento da produtividade do trabalho, via queda dos empregos formais e elevação da produção física.

No período que envolveu o último trimestre de 2017 e o primeiro deste ano, o crescimento da produção ficou marcado pela combinação das atividades produtivas da Indústria de meios de consumo duráveis com o posicionamento do capital bancário, quem por sua vez promoveu expansão do crédito a pessoa física, diga-se de passagem, motivada por aumento do spread, ou seja, se elevou a diferença entre os juros de empréstimos e aplicações bancárias. Além disso, teve impacto o crescimento das vendas externas do agronegócio.

Já as finanças públicas, em função da “financeirização”, tendo cerca de 50% de suas receitas correntes dominadas pela rolagem da dívida, sofre impacto fiscal negativo em função da queda na produção bruta total.

Nesse cenário, esse estudo não aponta para a recuperação da taxa de investimento (público e privado) no país, mesmo sob a situação de aumento da produtividade do trabalho vista em setores do polo dinâmico da economia brasileira. A principal razão contraditória esta no processo histórico da semicolonização que dificulta constituição de conexões amplas entre as principais cadeias produtivas da Indústria. Somam-se a isso os atuais elementos contraditórios em torno dos investimentos públicos, da expansão do crédito e do comércio exterior.

O sistema de preços está apresentando uma combinação que envolve o domínio dos grandes grupos econômicos, nos principais setores produtivos, junto com isso os efeitos da crise econômica sobre os pequenos e médios proprietários instalados nas cadeias de fornecimentos da economia brasileira. No primeiro caso, o sistema de preços é condicionado por fatores internacionais e, na segunda dimensão, a depender do posicionamento de política monetária, do emprego e da renda, a subida de preços dos serviços de consumo das famílias.

Enfim, a dinâmica econômica do país está pautada por queda no crescimento da produção, emprego e renda. Isto ocorre pelas dificuldades de se combinar no próximo período a elevação da produtividade do trabalho em setores mais fortes da indústria, com a expansão do crédito, das exportações envolvendo vários setores produtivos e dos investimentos (público e privado). Portanto, concluímos que a tendência mais provável é a redução do nível de crescimento econômico.

 

Faça o download do boletim completo aqui.

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